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VISION: Journal of Indian Taxation
Vol 12 , Issue 2 , July - December 2025 | Pages: 19-33 | Research Paper

The Politics of Taxation Reform: A Logit Model of the Centre-State Binary in Value Added Tax and Goods and Services Tax Implementation in India

 
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Author Details ( * ) denotes Corresponding author

1. * Isha Dasgupta, Assistant Professor, Economics, Lady Brabourne College, Kolkata, West Bengal, India (ishadgupta1976@gmail.com)

This paper investigates the political economy of taxation reform in India through an analysis of the federal dynamics underlying the implementation of two major fiscal policies—Value Added Tax (VAT) and Goods and Services Tax (GST). By examining state-level variations in adoption timelines and responses to both reforms, the paper highlights how ideological positioning, alliance configurations, and central-state relations critically influenced policy outcomes. For VAT, a joint distribution of attributes model quantitatively demonstrates a strong association between the ruling party at the state level and their adoption decisions. The analysis is deepened through a binary logit regression model, which affirms that political allegiance was the most significant determinant of early or delayed implementation, even over relevant economic indicators. The results emphasize the inseparability of fiscal federalism and political contestation in India’s reform trajectory, making a case for viewing taxation as a politically negotiated process.

Keywords

Indirect Taxation; VAT; GST; Fiscal Federalism; Logit Regression

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