Journal Press India®

A Neural Network Analysis of the Economic Condition of the China – Central Asia Economic Corridor

Vol 22 , Issue 1 , January - June 2021 | Pages: 26-50 | Research Paper  

https://doi.org/10.51768/dbr.v22i1.221202103


Author Details ( * ) denotes Corresponding author

1. Eric Balan, Lecturer, Universiti Tun Abdul Razak, Malaysia (eric@unirazak.edu.my)
2. * Mohammad Saeed, Formerly Professor, Minot State University, United States (profsaeed@yahoo.com)

Purpose: The present study is an attempt to examine the economic conditions of Central Asia in its interest in becoming a strategic economic partner to China on the economic corridor of China’s Belt and Road Initiatives.

Design/Methodology/Approach: Using neural network as a tool for pattern recognition, the Central Asia’s national accounts were assessed to ascertain its fitness in becoming a worthy partner to China on the Belt and Road Initiatives. The 18-year economic period data that was used was obtained and corroborated from the Asian Development Bank, World Bank, and the respective National Statistical Bureaus.

Findings: The results of the assessment showed that these five countries of Central Asia are economically not sound and venturing further into this partnership would and could push an adverse outcome. Albeit with the fundamentals being restored and, in some ways, improved (drastically slow), China has shown interest in the region for the longest time. With the region’s economy not being strong and solely based on commodities coupled with a floating rate, the shift in global uncertainness will run the course for Central Asia.

Research Limitations: The main limitation for this study was on the data and its representation of the countries. Some components of the data were consolidated and represented as a single indicator. This misled the data interpretation and required corroboration from multiple sources to verify the data.

Managerial Implications: The national accounts of each of these countries were assessed with inflation omitted displayed a downward trend in its overall 18-year economy period. For a developing region, the national economy cannot rely only on one or a few economic activities. Strong sectors can become weak should it be neglected or be impacted exogenously, especially energy and commodities, and weaker economic sectors that could potentially become main drivers of the country need due focus as well. However, there were no trace of evidence in the assessment to show a potential economic activity becoming the catalyst of growth for the region and for the respective countries.

Originality/Value: This study showcased the use of artificial intelligence in the area of international economics to distinctively characterize and cluster countries according to the realities of their respective economic conditions.

Keywords

Neural Network, Development Economics, China, Central Asia, Economic Condition

  1. Blades, F. L. (2014). Understanding National Account, Second Edition, Paris: OECD.
  2. Eduardo Ogasawara, L. M. (2009). Neural Networks Cartridges for Data Mining on Time Series, International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (pp. 2302-2309), Atlanta: IEEE.
  3. Frankel, J. (2003, April 14). Proposed Monetary Regime. Retrieved from Harvard Kennedy School, Retrieved from https://sites.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/PEP-YaleApr_IF+App.pdf, Accessed on August 07, 2020.
  4. Frankel, J. (2011, June 1). Choosing an Exchange Rate Regime. Retrieved from Harvard Kennedy School, Retrieved from https://www.hks.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/centers/mrcbg/files/MRCBG_FWP_2011_16-2011_Frankel_Exchange_ Rate.pdf, Accessed on August 07, 2020.
  5. Joseph E. Stiglitz, A. S. P. (2009). The Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress Revisited, Paris: Sciences Po Economics Research Center, OFCE.
  6. Kriesel, D. (2005, May 27). David Kriesel. Retrieved from Brief Introduction to Neural Networks, Retrieved from http://www.dkriesel.com/_media/science/neuronalenetze-en-zeta2-2col-dkrieselcom.pdf, Accessed on August 07, 2020.
  7. Milos Marinkovic, M. L. (2014, December 14). The Implementation of the Neural Networks to the problem of Economic Classification of Countries. Retrieved from Research Gate https://www.researchgate.net/publication/272116575_The_ Implementation_of_the_Neural_Networks_to_the_problem_of_Economic_Classification_of_Countries, Accessed on August 07, 2020.
  8. Neva Goodwin, J. A. (2008). Macroeconomic Measurement: Environmental and Social Dimensions, Massachusetts: Global Development And Environment Institute, Tufts University.
  9. Nurgozhayeva, R. (2020, July 9). The Diplomat. Retrieved from How Is China’s Belt and Road Changing Central Asia?, Retrieved from https://thediplomat.com/2020/07/how-is-chinas-belt-and-road-changing-central-asia/, Accessed on August 07, 2020.
  10. Overland, R. V. (2019). China’s Belt and Road Initiative through the lens of Central Asia. In F. M. Y. Hong, Regional Connection under the Belt and Road Initiative. The prospects for Economic and Financial Cooperation (pp. 115-133). London: Routledge.
  11. Rickman, D. S. (2010). Modern Macroeconomics and Regional Economic Modeling, Journal of Regional Science, 23-41.
  12. Treyz, G. I. (1993). Regional Economic Modeling: A Systematic Approach to Forecasting and Policy Analysis, New York: Springer.
  13. Wei Huang, K. K. (2007). Neural Networks in Finance and Economics Forecasting, International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making, 113-140.
Abstract Views: 2
PDF Views: 38

Advanced Search

News/Events

3rd International Co...

About the Conference At the outset, the multifarious Covid-19 pande...

International Confer...

ABOUT THE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE Today, the world of business is ...

Call for Reviewers

In keeping with JPI’s policy of commitment to high standards of ...

Call for papers

JPI invites original and unpublished manuscripts in the areas of comme...

By continuing to use this website, you consent to the use of cookies in accordance with our Cookie Policy.