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Forecasting Milk Production and Per Capita Availability of Milk in India using ARIMA and VAR Models

Vol 10 , Issue 2 , July - December 2023 | Pages: 35-57 | Research Paper  

 
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https://doi.org/10.17492/jpi.pragati.v10i2.1022303


Author Details ( * ) denotes Corresponding author

1. * Archita Nayak, Faculty, Commerce, Kalipada Ghosh Tarai Mahavidyalaya, Siliguri, West Bengal, India (archita.nayak@gmail.com)
2. Kanti Paul, Faculty, Commerce, Kalipada Ghosh Tarai Mahavidyalaya, Siliguri, West Bengal, India (kantipaul@gmail.com)
3. Kanak Kanti Bagchi, Professor, Economics, University of North Bengal, Siliguri, West Bengal, India (kanakkantibagchi@gmail.com)

Milk production has a significant contribution to Indian economy. Milk production forecasting is a fundamental driver for the dairy sector. Dairy companies use their forecasts to establish pricing, contracts with farms and the production requirements for their factories. The study is based on secondary data on milk production and per capita availability of milk collected from National Dairy Development Board for the period 1979-80 to 2021-22. ARIMA(2,2,1) and ARIMA(0,2,1) models are found to be best suited models for forecasting milk production in India and per capita availability of milk in India respectively. Predicted values of milk production and per capita available in India have been provided for the period 2022-23 to 2031-32. Fitted ARIMAs are very strong in prediction since all actual and predicted values coincide. VAR (standard and Bayesian) models have been utilized for joint forecasting of milk production and per capita availability of milk in India.

Keywords

National Dairy Development Board; Dairy Industry; Crossbred Dairy Cattle; On-farm Management; Surplus Milk Supply

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